The hottest machinery industry is in the repair cy

2022-09-19
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The machinery industry is in the repair cycle, with great market potential

the machinery industry is in the repair cycle, with great market potential

China Construction machinery information

Guide: in 2012, we focus on the following three issues in the machinery sector: 1. In the traditional cyclical industry, will the growth rate of construction machinery sales never recover? 2. Among the weak cycle industries, which mechanical sub industries can resist the economic slowdown? 3. Among the emerging industries, which may become the branches of the 1990s. Week

in the machinery sector in 2012, we focus on the following three issues: 1. In the traditional cyclical industry, will the growth rate of construction machinery sales fall? 2. Among the weak cycle industries, which mechanical sub industries can resist the economic slowdown? 3. Among the emerging industries, which may become the branches of the 1990s

in addition,

the cycle industry looks at the expected repair of construction machinery. The planned investment in new construction remains high and the government investment is about to come out of the trough, which means that the potential demand is still strong; In the context of targeted easing, the six-month bill direct discount rate representing the liquidity of the real economy began to fall, and the potential demand for construction machinery is expected to be transformed into actual demand. Since August, excavators, truck cranes and loaders, the representative varieties of construction machinery, have shown seasonal characteristics. In the later stage, stimulated by the targeted easing policy, the industry is expected to usher in the expected repair in the first half of 2012

expected repair of construction machinery

the potential demand for construction machinery is still strong. The growth rate of investment in the new construction plan has remained relatively high since it became positive in the middle of 2011, which means that the growth rate of construction machinery sales is expected to pick up in months. At the same time, private roe is still at a historically high level, and the prospect of independent investment by enterprises is also optimistic. Therefore, we are still optimistic about the potential demand for construction machinery

liquidity has been gradually relaxed, which is conducive to the transformation of potential demand for construction machinery into real demand. The core factor restricting the transformation from potential demand to real demand of construction machinery in the early stage is the shortage of funds in the real economy, which is manifested in the fact that the six-month bill direct discount interest rate once surged to the highest level in history of 13%. After the fine-tuning and targeted easing of monetary policy during this period, the direct discount interest rate has obviously fallen from a high level, the liquidity tension has gradually eased, and there is a certain soil for the transformation of potential demand for construction machinery to real demand

the recent sales volume of construction machinery has no need to spend more money to improve the accuracy, which has seasonal characteristics, and the peak season characteristics in the first half of next year will appear. In the first half of 2011, due to the lagging impact of many construction projects and the drive of leverage sales, the monthly sales data of the hydraulic loading system for the manhole cover pressure testing machine of construction machinery products significantly exceeded the market expectations, and also broke the previous seasonal characteristics. With the gradual decline of demand expectations, the monthly sales data of sub products of construction machinery has gradually become seasonal since August. With the effect of targeted easing policy appearing, we expect that the decline in sales growth of various products in the first half of 2012 will gradually narrow, and the characteristics of peak season will gradually appear

the targeted loose policy will ensure the smooth implementation of key projects, and will also effectively alleviate the financial tension of downstream customers of construction machinery. We expect that in the first half of 2012, as the potential demand with capital guarantee is gradually transformed into actual demand, the sales of construction machinery is expected to usher in the peak season, and the stock price will reflect the peak season sales. At present, the 10 times valuation of leading companies reflects overly pessimistic expectations, and it is still recommended to buy Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion

the market potential of safety, energy and consumer segments is great.

new technologies and products for coal mine safety will be promoted. The "12th Five Year Plan" for work safety clearly puts forward that it will focus on the research of prevention and control technology and equipment such as rock burst, roof fall and dynamic disasters, develop a batch of key equipment with urgent actual needs but no finalized products such as roof maintenance, and focus on the development of "six systems" including emergency avoidance system

during the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, the mechanized mining ratio of China's coal industry has significantly increased, especially the mechanized mining ratio of large and medium-sized state-owned coal mines has reached a high level of more than 90%. The "12th Five Year Plan" for work safety clearly puts forward that the mechanization of coal mining and tunneling and loading in small coal mines will reach 55% and 80% respectively by the end of 2015

supporting policies ensure development. The 12th Five Year Plan for work safety also clearly states that the development plan for the safety industry will be formulated, the safety equipment manufacturing industry will be developed, and key safety equipment will be included in the scope of national policy support for revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry. At the same time, in order to ensure the purchase of safety equipment, we will also improve the safety 7. The supervision mechanism for the extraction and use of accumulator production costs, appropriately expand the scope of application of the safety production cost extraction system, improve the lower limit standard of safety production cost extraction, and comprehensively implement the safety production insurance system in high-risk industries such as mines

industrial energy conservation is the top priority, especially the energy conservation of compressors and fans. Industrial energy consumption accounts for more than 60% of total energy consumption, which has continued to rise since 2005 and reached about 72% in 2010. In the industrial sector, manufacturing energy consumption accounts for nearly 60%. Among many industrial equipment, fans, pumps and compressors consume 42% of energy, and motors account for 28%. Due to the dispersion of downstream industries of fans and compressors, energy-saving benefits can be fully reflected in the profits of relevant companies

the acceleration of consumer investment benefits related equipment, raw materials and services. In recent years, China's consumer market has gradually expanded. The expansion of the consumer market will inevitably require an increase in consumer investment, thereby driving related equipment, raw materials and services. At the same time, China has gradually shifted from industrial investment to consumer investment. According to the statistical results of the 2011 interim report of listed companies, the proportion of capital expenditure in revenue of listed companies of investment goods has decreased year by year, and the proportion of capital expenditure in revenue of listed companies of consumer goods has continued to rise

in 2015, the market space of PET beverage packaging machinery in China will reach 8.2 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.8%. In 2011, the growth rate of investment in beverage manufacturing industry was 40.8%, accounting for 0.63% of urban fixed asset investment. According to our calculation, the market space of PET beverage packaging machinery in China will reach 8.2 billion in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.8%

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