The hottest ferrosilicon soared, and the thousand

Ferrosilicon "rampaged": the net excess of 1000 yuan arbitrage space showed that the main seats increased by nearly 30000 hands

Abstract: in fact, there is always concern about the decline in the growth rate of real estate investment in the market, resulting in the decline in downstream demand for steel. However, from the situation of this year and other components that may be very important for special rigidity and wear resistance, the growth of demand is far beyond market expectations

the 21st Century Business Herald noted that the recent reduction in positions of black series commodities is relatively obvious, such as the position of coking coal futures has been declining since December. In contrast, ferrosilicon, which has soared due to environmental factors, has continued to flow in despite the regulation of the exchange

last week, black series commodities showed a "flash collapse" trend. On December 7, the main contract of coke closed down, while the iron ore plate with weak fundamentals also hit the limit price

the 21st Century Business Herald noted that the recent reduction in positions of black series commodities is relatively obvious, such as the position of coking coal futures has been declining since December. In contrast, ferrosilicon, which has soared due to environmental factors and will further improve the competitiveness of the market, although regulated by the exchange, still has a continuous inflow of funds

according to the data of business agency, the ex factory price of 72 × ferrosilicon in Ningxia was up to 11000 yuan/ton on December 11. Although the ferrosilicon futures industry followed the rise, the increase was far behind. Take the 1801 contract to be delivered as an example, the settlement price on December 11 was 9038 yuan/ton

"as the delivery month approaches, the futures and cash prices will tend to be consistent, and the existing price difference will also close." Zhanglingjun, head of the commodity futures Department of CUHK Futures Research Institute, said on December 11 that at present, the supply of goods in the spot market is tight, and enterprises are more inclined to sell ferrosilicon directly in the spot market, and their willingness to register as warehouse receipts decreases

perhaps because of the arbitrage opportunities in the current and future markets and the certainty of future price return, the main seats have also increased their holdings of ferrosilicon multiple orders on a large scale recently. By the close of the 11th, the net multiple orders held by the top 20 seats had been close to 30000 hands

behind the rise of ferrosilicon

due to the relatively limited trading volume and positions, ferrosilicon is not the mainstream variety in the futures market, but with a production shutdown in Ningxia, it has become the focus of the recent market

on December 1, for environmental protection reasons, the people's Government of Zhongwei City, Ningxia issued a notice requiring the ferroalloy, calcium carbide and silicon carbide enterprises within its jurisdiction to stop production and rectify at the same time

as the local area is one of the main production areas of ferrosilicon in China, the shutdown directly triggered the expectation of weakening the market supply side, and drove the spot price of ferrosilicon to rise all the way

according to the data of business agency, the ex factory price of 72# ferrosilicon in Ningxia was/ton on December 1, and by December 11, the ex factory price of 72# ferrosilicon had risen to/ton. In just 10 days, the spot increase of ferrosilicon has been close to 50%

under the effect of the price comparison between futures and current markets, ferrosilicon futures of Zhengshang exchange also rose, with the main ferrosilicon 1801 contract rising by the limit on December 4 and 5, and the rise has continued to this day

part of the funds flowing out of the black system may enter the ferrosilicon and manganese silicon futures with a more popular market. According to Wenhua financial data, since the end of November, the total position of ferrosilicon futures has increased from 146000 to 252000 at present

on December 6, the exchange raised the margin of ferrosilicon 1801 contract, and the holding cost increased accordingly. Then on December 8, there was a one-day position reduction of 26000 hands, but on December 11, there was another position increase of 3674 hands

the bulls are so active, perhaps because they attach importance to the price difference of nearly "1000 yuan" between the ferrosilicon futures and spot. "The 1801 contract is about to be delivered, and there is no other way except for the return of futures and current prices, or the rise of futures, or the fall of cash, or the rise and fall of both." Zhang Lingjun said

on the other hand, the seats of major institutions are also massively increasing their holdings of ferrosilicon. Take CITIC futures as an example. On December 4, the seat held 12906 ferrosilicon multiple orders, which quickly increased to 26459 on December 7 and still held 19142 on December 11

considering the leverage effect of futures and the 23.3% increase in the main ferrosilicon contract last week, CITIC seats are undoubtedly profitable

in addition, the long and short strength of ferrosilicon futures has also changed significantly since the announcement of the shutdown in Ningxia. On December 4, although the growth rate of composite materials among the top 20 major players in the aviation sector was different, the number of ferrosilicon empty orders held by the seats was 62215, slightly more than the number of multiple orders at that time. By December 11, the top 20 main seats had become long, and the net number of long orders reached 27204 on that day

differentiation of black series

in sharp contrast to ferrosilicon, black series commodities suddenly plummeted last week, and coke, coking coal and iron ore futures once fell by the limit

at the same time, some funds began to flow out of the above varieties. Taking coking coal futures as an example, the total position was 350000 hands at the end of November, which had fallen to 252000 hands by December 11

"after a continuous rise in the short-term sentiment of the market, the confidence of the market to continue to rise is insufficient, and some market rumors have led to large-scale liquidation of long funds, resulting in a rapid drop in intraday prices", Xia Xuezhao, a black researcher at Southwest futures, pointed out on December 11

he pointed out that the current steel production restriction policy is being implemented, and the weakening demand for raw materials is real, which is not conducive to the continuous rise of coke, iron ore and other raw materials, "In the middle of last week, the spot transaction of finished materials turned worse, and the spot price in North China loosened. Once the price of finished materials loosened, the rising raw material price fell even more.

in his view, after December, the impact of weather on demand will be more obvious than that in November, and the demand in North China will gradually weaken, "We should also pay attention to the resilience that the demand side may show. As long as there is no cliff like decline in demand, its pressure on prices will not be too great."

maguanghui, an analyst at Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, also pointed out on December 11 that with the gradual loss of the two positive factors of "low inventory and acceptable demand", steel prices are still at risk of falling in the short term

according to her, as the weather gets colder, the demand for terminal procurement will gradually shrink. In addition, the current basis is still large. Taking futures snail as an example, the far month contract discount is more than 900 yuan, and the recent month contract discount is also about 400 yuan. In the case of a huge discount, there is a demand for repair in the market. The original 3D printing structure will be gradually decomposed and absorbed by the human body within a few years, and the inflection point may appear in the first quarter of next year. At that time, the industry will also enter the traditional peak consumption season, and downstream demand is likely to bring new support to black goods

in fact, there is always concern about the decline in the growth rate of real estate investment in the market, resulting in the decline in downstream demand for steel. However, from the situation of this year, the growth of demand is far beyond market expectations

in this regard, Xia Xuezhao pointed out, "after November, the market entered the traditional off-season of demand, but the demand did not decline significantly. Although the demand in Northeast China decreased as the weather turned cold, the demand in South China and East China increased month on month, forming a hedge between the two, keeping the total demand stable."

it should be pointed out that, unlike the steel price operation in the past two years, which depends on the weakening of the supply side, the space for capacity reduction in the future has become relatively limited, and the focus of price operation will also shift to the demand side