Development status and Prospect Analysis of the ho

2022-09-23
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Development status and Prospect Analysis of China's new energy power industry

development status and Prospect Analysis of China's new energy power industry

China Construction machinery information

1. 2016 is the bottom of power rationing, and power rationing is expected to reverse under the catalysis of policies

China's existing new energy power installations have been in a serious imbalance between the East and the West in terms of geographical distribution, The large-scale new energy ground power stations dominated by scenery are mainly concentrated in the northwest region (mainly including Gansu, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Mengxi). However, due to the limited local consumption capacity and the lack of enough power transmission channels, the situation of light abandonment and power rationing has deteriorated year by year while the installed capacity has increased rapidly in the past few years. In 2015, photovoltaic power generation in most parts of the country operated well, with an average annual utilization of about 1133 hours. In contrast, northwest power rationing area 1 Our company adopts an after-sales service system that combines regular return visits with consultation at any time. The average utilization hours of Gansu and Xinjiang autonomous regions are only 1061 hours and 1042 hours, and the light rejection rate is as high as 31% and 26%. In the first quarter of 2016, the degree of light abandonment further intensified. Among the 1.9 billion kwh of light abandonment in the first quarter of the country, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Gansu provinces abandoned 1.8 billion kwh, accounting for nearly 95% of the total amount of light abandonment. Among them, Xinjiang and Gansu account for 40% and 44% of the national light loss respectively, and the light loss rate is as high as 52% and 39%

the reasons are mainly from two aspects: the rapid increase in the cumulative installed capacity of new energy in recent years and the bottleneck of power transmission conditions in some regions

on the one hand, in China's energy structure dominated by thermal power, the thermal power stock was large in the past, and new energy accounted for a relatively small proportion in the power structure. With the country's vigorous development of new energy, the installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power has increased rapidly in the past few years. In the past, incremental new energy installed capacity was mainly distributed in the northwest and other regions rich in scenic resources, but the rapid growth of new energy installed capacity in some regions left a hidden danger of large-scale power rationing. The cumulative annual installed capacity in Northwest China has been increasing, from 12.24 million kW in 2014 to 21.56 million kW in the first quarter of 2016, an increase of 76%. As the amount of light lost has remained high for the past two years, most power limiting provinces and cities began to orderly restrict the new incremental new energy installation this year (including other types of power installation in the region). In the first quarter of 2016, the proportion of new installed capacity in major power limitation areas in the national installed capacity fell from 36% in 2015 to 17%

on the other hand, the more important reason is that the power transmission conditions in Northwest and other places are limited, resulting in the low actual utilization hours of photovoltaic power stations in power limitation areas. Before 2016, there was only one Hami Zhengzhou AC UHV in Northwest China, with a transmission capacity of 8million kW. Ordinary high-voltage power is far less powerful than UHV transmission lines in terms of long-distance transmission capacity. The loss in the transmission process is relatively high and the transmission distance is short. In view of the low population density in areas with serious power restrictions and the lack of large local power users, the local consumption capacity is limited. The existing number of UHV and ordinary high-voltage transmission and distribution networks are far from meeting the current demand of West to East power transmission

the country has begun to pay high attention to the difficult problems of new energy in the past two years. Since last year, a series of policies and supporting documents have been intensively issued to strengthen the supervision of thermal power units and ensure the priority of new energy. Some important documents are listed as follows:

at present, the policy has achieved initial results, the growth rate of thermal power has slowed down, the proportion has decreased significantly, and the main competition of new energy power transmission has been reduced from the source. By the end of 2015, the thermal power generation was 4230.7 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. Hydraulic transmission components should not have an impact in return activities, and the proportion in the total power generation fell to 73.7%; The installed capacity of thermal power was 1005.54 million KW, with a year-on-year increase of only 7.9%, lower than the growth rate of the national installed capacity of 10.6%, and the proportion in the total installed capacity fell to 65.9%. The total power generation of new energy (including hydropower, wind power, solar power and nuclear power) was 1509.2 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 109.6%, accounting for 26.3% of the total power generation; The cumulative installed capacity of new energy was 519.64 million KW, with a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, accounting for 34.1% of the total installed capacity

in addition to the slow growth of the scale and power generation of thermal power plants, the structural reform of thermal power plants is also proceeding steadily, providing more space for the development of new energy. In 2015, the decommissioning and shutdown capacity of thermal power units was 10.91 million KW, with a year-on-year increase of 20.04%. Without considering the natural decommissioning of units, the cumulative shutdown of small thermal power has reached 110million kW since 2005, which is equivalent to the installed power generation capacity of Italy, Brazil, Spain and other countries. Large fire power plants with higher coal-fired efficiency and higher standardization gradually replace small thermal power plants. By the end of 2015, the proportion of thermal power units with 300000 kW and above has increased from 27.8% in 1995 to 78.6% in 2015

China's power supply policy, which was intensively introduced in, has effectively restrained the installation of thermal power and supported the priority of new energy power generation, and has made certain achievements at present. However, in view of the current national conditions, it is believed that the fundamental way to solve the high power limitation rate in Northwest China is to speed up the construction of UHV and improve the transmission capacity of West to East power transmission

2. In the acceleration of UHV construction, power rationing is expected to improve year by year

during the 13th Five Year Plan period, UHV is inclined to the northwest

UHV transmission has the characteristics of long-distance, large capacity and low loss, which is the main way of West to East power transmission. From the perspective of UHV development pattern, North Korea's raw materials and technology have been used to develop prefabricated perforated plastic tiles with high flexural and tensile strength. China's "12th Five Year Plan" UHV plan is to build "three horizontal, three vertical and one ring" UHV backbone frame, which will send wind power and coal power from Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Hebei to north, central and East China through three vertical UHV channels; Coal power in the north and hydropower in the southwest are sent to North China, central China and the Yangtze River Delta through three horizontal UHV channels, forming a resource allocation pattern of West to East power transmission and north to South power transmission. As of 2015, China has completed the construction of two demonstration projects of UHV lines and "three alternating and four direct lines", and the strategic layout of Northwest China, including Gansu, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, has begun to show. However, the transmission capacity is far from enough to complete all the requirements of West to East power transmission, and the construction of UHV is further accelerated during the 13th Five Year Plan period

during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the state will focus on optimizing the two UHV synchronous electricity in the West (northwest + Sichuan, Chongqing and Tibet) and the East ("Sanhua" + three provinces in the Northeast + Inner Mongolia), forming a pattern of 29 UHV lines with clear transmission and receiving end structures, "five horizontal and five vertical". During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the national trans regional power transmission scale will be increased from the current 110 million kW to 370 million KW. The total investment in UHV planning will reach 3.3 trillion yuan, and the UHV construction line length and transformation capacity will reach 89000 kilometers and 780 million KW respectively

the overall layout of "five horizontal and five vertical" UHV power includes two UHV demonstration projects put into operation in the South during the 12th Five Year Plan period and seven "three alternating and four direct" lines of China Construction, as well as a total of 20 UHV lines under construction and planned. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the first thing to be completed is 9 UHV lines in the 12 lines of the air pollution prevention plan - "four alternating and five direct". Secondly, the state will speed up the construction of the "four alternating and six direct" approved in 2015. In addition to the eight UHV lines in the "four alternating and five direct", two new lines have been added to the "four alternating and six direct" line. Of course, we have evaluated them - Jiuquan, Gansu - Xiangtan, Hunan, and huaidong, Xinjiang - Southern Anhui. From this, we can see that the policy is inclined to the power transmission in the northwest. Subsequently, the state will continue to build "five AC and eight DC lines". In addition to five UHV lines already included in the "four AC and six DC lines", eight new UHV lines will be included. Finally, the construction of UHV in zarut Qingzhou will begin in August 2016. In addition to the 20 UHV lines that have been clearly planned or under construction at present, Guodian plans to start the construction of another "10 AC and 2 DC" project before 2018, but the specific line country has not been disclosed. Therefore, it is judged that the UHV cumulative transmission capacity will increase year by year

from the perspective of the process of UHV operation, the construction of UHV was relatively slow before 2015, with a total of 9 lines put into operation, and the total transmission capacity was limited. According to the latest plan, from 2016, UHV will accelerate construction and enter the fast track of operation. According to statistics, as many as 12 UHV lines have been started and are planned to be put into operation in. Taking 8.4 million KW as the transmission capacity of a single line, the total transmission capacity of 12 UHV lines is expected to exceed 100 million KW. Among them, four have been put into operation in 2016, and the new transmission capacity is about 33.6 million KW, of which three have been put into operation in the second half of 2016, and the effect of improving transmission capacity has mainly appeared since 2017. In 2017, 7 will be intensively put into operation, and the new transmission capacity will reach about 58.8 million KW. The cumulative operation volume of UHV in 2017 will be 2.58 times that of the national UHV stock by the end of 2015. One UHV line is planned to be put into operation in 2018, with an estimated transmission capacity of about 8.4 million KW. It is worth noting that eight UHV lines will be put into operation in Northwest China, accounting for 2/3 of the total in three years; In terms of transmission capacity, the incremental transmission capacity of the fixed-term power region is conservatively estimated to be 67.2 million KW, corresponding to the stock of 8 million KW before 2015, with a net increase of at least 740%, and the transmission capacity will be greatly improved

among the three years, 2017 is the most intensive year of operation. Therefore, it is estimated that 2017 is expected to become an important inflection point to break through the bottleneck of power transmission in Northwest China

in addition to the 12 UHV lines that have been started or put into operation, according to the plan, there are still 8 UHV lines that will be reviewed and started successively during the year. It is conservatively estimated that the new transmission capacity is about 67.2 million KW. In addition, during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the state power will also start the construction of the "10 AC and 2 DC" project. Usually, the construction period of UHV is about 2 years, and it is expected that most of the "ten AC and two DC" projects will be put into operation in. Therefore, with the increase of UHV lines, the profitability of the industry will continue to improve, and there is a possibility of exceeding expectations

on the one hand, the rapid growth of photovoltaic installed capacity in China, on the other hand, it is subject to the bottleneck of UHV, which makes the abandonment of light and power rationing more and more serious in the past two years. However, with the accelerated construction of UHV in the 13th five year plan, as many as 12 UHV lines will be put into operation from the second half of 2016 to 2018, and the planned 8 UHV lines and "10 AC and 2 DC lines" will successively pass the review and start construction. It is estimated that after the trough in 2016, the power generation of new energy power stations will usher in an upward inflection point in 2017, and the market will continue with UHV. It is believed that companies with large-scale photovoltaic power stations and full limited voltage system will benefit directly, and their performance will show greater flexibility than expected

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