Analysis on the trend of toluene in Asia in 2018

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2018 Asian toluene trend analysis

2018 Asian toluene trend analysis

January 25, 2019

2018 Asian toluene suddenly plummeted at the end of the year after a long shock climb, with a significant contrast before and after the market trend. Before the end of October, toluene in Asia showed a step-by-step upward trend, especially in the third quarter. However, near the end of the year, the market price fell precipitously due to the impact of systematic risks in the energy and chemical markets. During the year, while following the general trend of crude oil, the toluene Market in Asia also came out of the independent characteristics of Chinese coatings in a certain period of time due to the changes in Asia's own supply and demand side and the impact of regional market trends. Specifically, the annual market trend can be basically divided into four stages:

data source: jinlianchuang

the first stage, in March, the market first rose and then fell, and reached the lowest point of the year in March

boosted by the volatile rise of crude oil, the toluene Market in Asia rose steadily in January, but the demand in the Chinese market in winter was poor, and merchants took a wait-and-see attitude towards imported shipments. From the end of January to the beginning of February, the crude oil futures price fluctuated and fell. Although the Asian aromatics unit is expected to be overhauled in March, which gives a certain support to the price, with the deepening of the crude oil decline and the constraints of China's approaching the Spring Festival, the demand for toluene in Asia has weakened. Even if the crude oil rebounded in March, it has not effectively boosted the price of toluene in Asia

l) curve traversal: in the second stage after the completion of the experiment, from mid April to the end of June, the market rose in the first round, hitting the first high point of the year, and laying the foundation for the next round of rise

Asian toluene rose strongly in September, during which the political situation in Syria was unstable, and the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. It is expected to increase sanctions against Iran. Under the stimulation of news in turn, crude oil futures prices rose significantly, which constituted an upward guidance for Asian toluene. At the same time, the toluene port inventory level in the Chinese market has gradually declined. Although the demand in the oil transfer market has weakened due to the pressure of policies, the market sales price has also actively increased under the background of tight supply. Affected by the maintenance of some aromatics units, Japan and South Korea are not in sufficient supply. The joint promotion of various factors has made the price of toluene in Asia hit the first high point in the year. However, since the end of May, toluene in Asia has surged and fell, and with the decline of crude oil futures prices and the gradual increase of inventories in the Chinese market and other negative factors, the market price has gradually fluctuated and fell

in the third stage, at the end of the month, prices fluctuated rapidly and rose sharply, and the rising trend line was steep, constantly brushing the high point of prices in the new year

at this stage, Asian toluene surged strongly, and crude oil once soared sharply in June, which boosted the aromatics market. However, the subsequent decline of crude oil futures did not have a significant impact on the trend of Asian aromatics. During the period, the downstream PX price continued to rise sharply and gradually transmitted upward, which boosted the prices of p-xylene and toluene, and increased the start of disproportionation. From May 13, 2015, the sales volume of toluene outside the market decreased, and the tight supply further provided a driving force for the rise of toluene price

The rising band in the month of

was mainly stimulated by PX and crude oil, but the crude oil futures price continued to decline in October. During this period, toluene in Asia still rose strongly, which was mainly boosted by the rise in Chinese market prices. Due to the extremely low level of spot inventory in Chinese ports in October, market speculation was very active, which constantly stimulated the rise of prices, and boosted the prices of Japan and South Korea, making the trend of toluene in Asia rise away from the guidance of crude oil

in the fourth stage, in August, systemic risks broke out, and the price of toluene in Asia fell precipitously

in the early stage, the price level of toluene in Asia was seriously high, resulting in overall losses in the downstream and loss of buying support. In addition, under the influence of the overall decline of crude oil and related products, only the success of vanadium battery development in Asia toluene bank plunged from the high point in November. At the same time, the supply of toluene in Japan and South Korea gradually tends to be abundant. Although the supply in the Chinese market is still tight, under the background of the market decline, merchants are more cautious about imports, which makes the overall buying sentiment in the Asian market depressed

from the end of November to the beginning of December, boosted by the periodic rebound of crude oil, Asian toluene once consolidated sideways, but the market failed to build a solid bottom. Although OPEC reached an agreement to limit production, there was still excess supply. In addition, due to the impact of news factors such as the expected slowdown of global economic growth, the production cost of crude oil products increased and the price fell again, and the chemical market confidence was seriously insufficient, causing the price of toluene in Asia to plunge twice

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